NEWS / THE 2026 ELECTION
Crombie leads. Tedjo passes the mayor.
A new Liaison Strategies poll puts Bonnie Crombie in front and Alvin Tedjo in second, now ahead of Mayor Carolyn Parrish. With four days to go, it is the second poll this week to rank the top three in that order.
Source: Liaison Strategies, October 22, 2026. Graphic: MATC.
Crombie in front. Tedjo moves past the mayor.
Liaison Strategies' October 22 release puts Crombie first at 35%, Tedjo second at 31% and Parrish third at 28% among decided and leaning voters. Dipika Damerla is at 4%, and 2% chose someone else.
Crombie's four-point lead is narrow. The three points between Tedjo and Parrish are within the margin of error, so the contest for second is close to even.
Liaison surveyed 1,000 Mississauga residents by interactive voice response on October 19 and 20. The margin of error is ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20, for the full sample, and higher for decided and leaning voters.
Ten weeks, a different race.
In August, Liaison had Crombie and Parrish tied at 35%, with Damerla at 18% and Tedjo at 12%. Tedjo reached 26% in Liaison's early-October survey and 31% now. Over the same period, Parrish has slipped from 35% to 28%, and Damerla has fallen to 4%.
Crombie dipped to 30% in early October and is back at 35%. Liaison's David Valentin notes that both Crombie and Tedjo gained five points in the last two weeks, without either pulling away.
The order matches Mainstreet Research's October 19 release, which had Crombie at 33.6%, Tedjo at 28.4% and Parrish at 26.2% among decided voters. Two firms, fieldwork days apart, same order. Pallas Data's most recent public poll, conducted September 30 and October 1, had Parrish ahead; it predates both.
Many voters are still deciding.
Before leaning voters are counted, 24% of respondents are undecided. On that first question, Crombie has 27%, Tedjo 24% and Parrish 21%. With one in four still choosing, the result is not settled.
The gender split shows why Crombie's lead is thin. Among decided and leaning men, she has 41%, ahead of Tedjo at 29% and Parrish at 26%. Among women, Tedjo leads with 33%, followed by Crombie at 30% and Parrish at 29%.
Age does not divide neatly. Crombie leads among voters aged 18 to 34 with 37%. Among those aged 35 to 49, Tedjo and Parrish are tied at 33%, with Crombie at 29%. Liaison cautions that these are smaller samples.
The city's mood remains a headwind for the incumbent. Forty-six per cent say Mississauga is heading in the wrong direction; 30% say the right direction. Parrish's job approval stands at 37%, with 37% disapproving and 25% unsure. Her disapproval is down from 42%, but her approval has not risen.
Two campaigns losing ground.
Parrish and Damerla have lost the most support since August: Parrish from 35% to 28%, Damerla from 18% to 4%. Their records explain why.
Carolyn Parrish: the bills came due.
- Her first budget, approved in December 2024, raised the City's share of the tax bill by 3.3%. The City called it the largest increase on its share in 25 years. "I know it's going to be really tough on people," she told council (The Pointer).
- Her election-year budget held the City levy increase to 4.39% only with a one-time $33 million transfer from reserves. Without it, the increase was 8.80% (City of Mississauga 2026 Budget).
- The same budget cut the infrastructure levy from 3% to 1% and paused the Public Safety Fire Program. City staff called those changes not sustainable and said some capital projects must be deferred or cancelled. The City's own forecast for 2027, the first budget after this election, is a 15.12% levy increase, or 5.55% on the total residential bill (same source).
- In March, she led the effort to defeat an independent auditor general, saying she trusted staff to do their job (The Pointer).
- She quit the Peel Police Services Board in late 2024, amid the fight over its 23.3% budget increase, and says she will not return. Mississauga pays about 62% of the police budget (The Pointer).
Residents are paying more, and the next increase is already on the books. It is hard to separate that record from the 46% who say the city is on the wrong track.
Dipika Damerla: the message and the messenger.
- She campaigns on transparency and value for money. Yet her office had by far the highest social media spending on council this term, more than $31,000 of public money, including $16,893 in 2025. Councillor Martin Reid spent $841 that year. An outside contractor runs the accounts, and she did not name who. She says the spending helps reach younger residents (The Pointer).
- Her signature proposal, an independent auditor general, failed at council in March without a single other vote. She was the only member to support it (same source).
- In the 2024 by-election, her campaign ran an ad saying Parrish had "mused at city council about doubling land transfer taxes." It rested on a 10-second clip in which, CBC found, Parrish did not specifically refer to a municipal land transfer tax (CBC News).
Accountability is the core of her campaign. Her own record makes it a harder sell.
Gains invite questions too.
The two campaigns gaining ground deserve the same scrutiny. One question for each before Monday:
Alvin Tedjo: what will the freeze cost? He has climbed from 12% to 31% since August. His central promise is to freeze property tax increases for all residents for at least two years, with a permanent freeze for qualifying seniors whose future increases would be deferred until the home is sold. What is the total cost, and which savings, reserves or new revenue would cover it?
Bonnie Crombie: what changes on housing? She leads both polls released this week, and she is running on her record. In 2023, her last full year as mayor, Mississauga reached just 39% of its 8,800-home provincial target and lost out on more than $30 million from the province's Building Faster Fund. What would she do differently this time?
Put the promises beside the record.
Candidates' histories matter alongside their current platforms. Previous votes, decisions in office, public statements and earlier commitments help residents assess judgment and follow-through.
Has the candidate supported this position before? What have they delivered? If their position has changed, have they explained why?
That standard applies to every candidate, including the front-runner. Check the original statement, the date and the context.
This is why we're here.
The Mississauga Accountability and Transparency Coalition connects residents' questions with research and the public record.
Before casting your ballot on October 26, take a closer look. Compare the positions. Examine the records. Bring forward a question or a source that deserves attention.